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Morning Briefing for pub, restaurant and food wervice operators

Fri 24th Mar 2023 - Update: JD Wetherspoon, Hawksmoor and consumer confidence
JD Wetherspoon reports like-for-like sales up 9.1% on pre-pandemic levels in past seven weeks but inflationary pressures for industry ‘ferocious’: JD Wetherspoon has reported like-for-like sales in the seven weeks to 19 March 2023 have been 9.1% above the equivalent period in FY19 and 14.9% above last year. Chairman Tim Martin said: “As reported last year, the company has a full complement of staff, although the labour market is competitive, with unemployment, in spite of economic problems, at approximately its lowest level in the last 50 or so years. Supply or delivery issues have largely disappeared, for now, and were probably a phenomenon of the stresses induced by the worldwide reopening after the pandemic, rather than a consequence of Brexit, as many commentators have argued. Inflationary pressures in the pub industry, as many companies have said, have been ferocious, particularly in respect of energy, food and labour. The Bank of England, and other authorities, believe that inflation is on the wane, which will certainly be of great benefit, if correct. Having experienced a substantial improvement in sales and profits, compared to our most recent financial year, and with a strengthened balance sheet, compared both to last year and to the pre-pandemic period, the company is cautiously optimistic about further progress in the current financial year and in the years ahead.” Total sales for the 26 weeks to 29 January 2023 were £916.0m, a 3% increase on the 2019 figure of £889.6m (2022: £807.4m). Like-for-like sales were up 5% on 2019. Compared with the first half of FY20, like-for-like sales were down 0.6% in the six-month period and were up 7.0% in the first six weeks of second half, before pubs closed as a result of the first UK lockdown. Compared with FY19, like-for-like bar sales decreased by 0.8%, food sales increased by 12.0%, slot/fruit machine sales increased by 44.3% and hotel rooms by 13.0%. Compared with last year, like-for-like bar sales increased by 8.4%, food by 19.3%, slot/fruit machines’ by 31.4% and hotel rooms by 7.3%. Profit before tax and separately disclosed items was £4.6m, compared with £50.3m in the same period in 2019 and a £26.1m loss in 2022. Operating profit before separately disclosed items, was £37.4m compared with £63.5m for the same period in 2019, and to £1.6m for the same period in 2022. The company opened two pubs during the first six months and sold or closed 11, resulting in a trading estate of 843 pubs at the half year end. There was a £3.1m loss on disposal, giving rise to a cash inflow of £2.7m. As at 29 January 2023, as a result of investment in freehold reversions (relating to pubs where the company was previously a tenant) and freehold pub openings, the split was 69.0%/31.0%. As at 29 January 2023, the company’s total net debt, excluding derivatives and lease liabilities, was £743.9m (23 January 2022: £920.4m), a decrease of £176.5m. The half year-end net-debt-to-Ebitda ratio was 6.16 times (2022: 25.63 times). The company’s debt and liabilities to trade creditors have both reduced since the first half of FY2020, the period before the pandemic started. Debt has decreased by £61m and trade creditors by £57m. A total of £179m has been invested, since then, in new pubs and freehold reversions. Wetherspoon paid £15.0m in respect of bonuses and free shares to employees in the period ending 29 January 2023, of which 95.9% was paid to staff below board level and 83.0% was paid to staff working in its pubs.

One week to go before release of updated Premium Database of Multi-Site Companies, 23 businesses being added: A total of 23 new multi-site companies, operating 95 sites, have been added to the next edition of the Propel Premium Database of Multi-Site Companies, which will be released on Friday, 31 March, at midday. The updated Propel Multi-Site Database, which is produced in association with Virgate, includes regional restaurant operators, growing bakery brands, and expanding hotel operators. Premium subscribers will also receive a 2,000-word report on the new additions to the database. The comprehensive database is updated monthly and provides company names, the people in charge, how many sites each firm operates, its trading name and its registered name at Companies House if different. The database now features 2,769 companies. Premium subscribers will also receive the next edition of the New Openings Database on Thursday, 6 April, at midday. It focuses on newly announced openings and upcoming launches in the sector and is updated every month. The next edition also includes a 6,000-word report on the new additions to the database. Premium subscribers also receive access to three other databases: the Propel Turnover & Profits Blue Book; the UK Food and Beverage Franchisor Database; and the Who’s Who of UK Food and Beverage. Companies can now have an unlimited number of people receive access to Propel Premium for a year for £895 plus VAT – whether they are an operator or a supplier. The single subscription rate is £445 plus VAT for operators and £545 plus VAT for suppliers. Email jo.charity@propelinfo.com to upgrade your subscription. Premium subscribers are also to be given exclusive access to the recording and slides to Propel Multi-Club Conferences. Premium subscribers also receive their morning newsletter 11 hours early, at 7pm the evening before; regular video content and regular exclusive columns from Propel group editor Mark Wingett.

Hawksmoor lines up second US site: Graphite Capital-backed steakhouse concept Hawksmoor has lined up its second site in the US, in Chicago. The company, which made its US debut, in New York, in 2021, plans to restore a designated landmark in Chicago, The LaSalle Street Cable Car Powerhouse, a 16,500 square-foot, three-storey space at 500 N LaSalle Street, with an opening planned for next year. Hawksmoor co-founder Will Beckett said: “Chicago is the historical powerhouse of American beef, and when we found out about an actual powerhouse building, it felt like fate. So, after years of dreaming, we’ve set our eyes on coming to Chicago next year. And we’ve found ourselves a home we cannot wait to settle into. The LaSalle Street Cable Car Powerhouse is a beautiful, designated landmark, initially opened in 1887, in the heyday of Chicago’s cable car system. We intend to do it justice by restoring the original features to their former glory and, at the same time, breathe new life into the space.” In December, Beckett told Propel that trading for the 11-strong business had been “really good” in 2022. Beckett said he was optimistic about what 2023 would bring for Hawksmoor, “although we’ll see how the socio-economic situation plays out” and was excited about the company’s opening in Dublin, which is scheduled for May. He also said the company was “entirely committed to opening a second US site to build on the success of New York”. 

Businesses face shock as energy subsidy ends: Hundreds of thousands of businesses may need to “shrink, restructure or close” when help with their energy bills is cut back next week, the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) has warned. The end of the Energy Bill Relief Scheme risks putting 370,000 companies who fixed their energy bills last year in financial difficulty, the employers’ group said. A new support scheme due to be implemented next Friday (31 March), the Energy Bills Discount Scheme, offers a markedly lower level of support. The FSB said thanks to lower wholesale prices, energy market prices have stabilised for those fixing their contracts now, or who are on variable tariffs, but those who fixed their deals last year “will see huge increases as they are locked into a high price”. The group said energy companies should be “sympathetic to the plight of small firms in this position” and allow them to renegotiate or extend their contracts in return for lower outgoings in the short term. It estimated a quarter of small businesses are locked into energy contracts signed last year, at a time when wholesale prices were close to record highs, and one in four of this group “could have to downsize, rethink their business model, or even close when they are hit by the rise in energy costs”. It cited the example of a pub using 48,000 kWh a year in electricity and 192,000 kWh in gas that signed a new contract in August last year. The pub would have received a reduction of £60,000 on its estimated £85,000 annual energy bill under the outgoing scheme. Under the new system the same business would only receive just over £2,000 in help. Tina McKenzie, policy chairwoman of the FSB, told The Times: “This cliff-edge will also hit consumers, as businesses will have to raise prices to cope with soaring bills, driving up inflation.”

Worried consumers still plan to spend big: Consumer confidence continued to rise this month despite growing concern about personal finances, the latest survey by market intelligence company GfK has shown. It rose by two points to minus 36. The biggest factor was a rise in the likelihood that people would buy big-ticket items such as furniture and electrical goods. This metric rose by four points to minus 33 according to the survey of 2,000 people aged 16 and over between 1 March and 14 March. However, the overall growth masks a decline in consumer sentiment about personal finances, which fell by three points on the barometer to minus 21. Finances have been squeezed not only by the cost-of-living crisis but also by rises in interest rates as the Bank of England races to contain inflation. The headline inflation rate surprised forecasters by rising to 10.4% in February, up from 10.1% in January. The Bank of England yesterday (Thursday, 23 March) implemented its 11th rise in interest rates since December 2021, taking them to 4.25% , the highest since 2008. Consumers’ perceptions improved after the UK avoided an early recession and the official forecaster improved its growth forecast to suggest that it would avoid a recession altogether. Confidence hit a record low last September when inflation was close to its peak. Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, told The Times: “A small improvement in the overall index score this month masks continuing concerns among consumers about their personal financial situation. This measure best reflects the financial pulse of the nation and it remains weak, with the figure for the coming year down three to minus 21 and an unchanged score for the past 12 months of minus 26. Wages are not keeping up with rising prices and the cost-of-living crisis remains a stark reality for most.”

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